Asian and global agriculture will be under significant pressure to meet the demands of rising populations, using finite and often degraded soil and water resources that are predicted to be further stressed by the impacts of climate change. In addition, agriculture and land use change are prominent sources of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Fertilizer application, livestock rearing, and land management affect levels of GHG in the atmosphere and the amount of carbon storage and sequestration potential. Therefore, while some impending climatic changes will have negative effects on agricultural production in parts of Asia, and especially on resource-poor farmers, the sector also presents opportunities for emission reductions. Warming across the Asian continent will be unevenly distributed, but will certainly lead to crop yield losses in much of the region and subsequent impacts on prices, trade, and food security--disproportionately affecting poor people. Most projections indicate that agriculture in South, Central, and West Asia will be hardest hit.
This paper discusses two approaches to responding to the impacts of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation--or the reduction of GHG emissions--is essential to slow climate change. The primary opportunities for pro-poor mitigation in the agriculture sector in Asia involve soil carbon sequestration, rice cultivation, and grazing land management. China and India, the world's largest producers of rice, also account for the vast majority of global methane emissions from rice. Potential exists for low-and no-cost mitigation policies in this sector. But significant reforms in the international climate policy framework and in implementation of carbon mitigation are needed to reduce transactions costs and increase the incentives for small farmer participation.
In addition, as climate change has already begun, adaptation--or the modification of agricultural practices and production--will be imperative if the growing food demands of modern society are to be met. However, many developing countries lack sufficient adaptive capacity. National governments, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), and international institutions therefore have a large role to play in building the necessary adaptive capacity and risk management structures. Significantly, mitigation and adaptation cost, the smaller the burdens placed on adaptation.